In rates markets, we have a modest underweight duration bias in the US and Europe. We continue to hold relative-value longs in Australia against the US (where we are reaching our performance targets) and Germany. In our absolute return bond portfolios, we have reduced our long duration position in the US against Germany. We have added a modest long in Spain versus Germany, as we now fundamentally see Spain as more of a semi-core than peripheral eurozone credit. In credit markets, we generally have a tactically positive outlook, with our slight short bias to euro investment grade credit the main exception. Our largest overweight biases are in sterling investment grade and credit default swaps (CDS).
Fixed income snapshot desk views
Published date: November 2018Share
Pension fund liability hedging demand for stripped Treasury bonds continues to run at elevated levels, boosted by improving funded levels and a surge in contributions before the September 15 deadline for higher tax deduction savings. In this quarter’s issue we discuss reasons why plan sponsors may want to consider Treasury futures instead.
US pension market: Review of trends in US pension and financial markets in Q3 2018 and outlook
Published date: October 2018Share
Emerging market debt (EMD) has endured a challenging year-to-date, leading investors to question whether this is merely a correction following a strong two-year performance spell, or the start of something bigger. We believe technical factors have driven the sell-off, and that emerging markets remain fundamentally sound – meaning now is a good time to consider adding exposure.
Emerging market debt: putting this sell-off into context
Published date: July 2018Share
By Peter Turchin
History shows us that ‘eras of good feelings’ are followed by ‘ages of discord’. The first age of discord in the USA coincided with the American Civil War and my research overwhelmingly shows we are entering a second.
The history of the near future: what does history tell us about our Age of Discord?
Published date: June 2018Share
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