On November 3, the US is holding elections for the Presidency, 35 Senate seats, the entire House of Representatives, and numerous elections at state and local level. Our current expectation is that the Democrats are highly likely to retain control of the House of Representatives but would need to win the popular vote by at least 8% to take control of the Senate. If President Trump wins a second term, he will thus likely face a divided congress.
Recalibrating to the new normal
After an unprecedented fiscal stimulus and financial support program, policy makers are arguably pursuing financial suppression, financing large fiscal deficits with monetary expansion.
The UK withdrew from the European Union (EU) on January 31, 2020 and entered a transition period, during which the two sides were supposed to agree their future relationship. The transition period ends on December 31, 2020. With the relationship between the two sides increasingly strained, it now appears that the range of potential scenarios for this future relationship have narrowed.