Global macro research hub
Latest views
The AI awakening: Productivity and the future of work
01 May 2024
Erik Brynjolfsson, one of the most-cited authors on the economics of information, examines the potential effects that artificial intelligence may produce on economies, living standards and society.
The unexpected resilience of global housing markets
19 March 2024
Global housing markets have held up better than expected through the rate hiking cycle. We think this strength could mean a slower rate cutting cycle than markets expect.
The scientific scrutiny of sustainability
11 March 2024
Alex Edmans, Professor of Finance at London Business School, explains how confirmation bias can be a challenge when it comes to sustainability and investment.
Previous research
China: potential growth – lower for longer
14 February 2024
We continue to have a bearish view for Chinese growth over the medium term relative to current market expectations.
Asset returns post rate peaks
30 January 2024
Markets are pricing in the end of the rate cycle, and if they are correct then asset prices have historically performed well in the period between the last hike and the first cut.
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
06 November 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.
Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?
13 October 2023
Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.
The rise of green protectionism
27 September 2023
Green protectionism is reshaping the global economy and geopolitics.
