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Investment grade credit

Investment grade credit

December 2025 review and outlook

Market environment

In December, US corporate spreads tightened by 2bp to +78bp option-adjusted spread (OAS)1, delivering total returns of -0.20% and excess returns (versus US Treasuries) of 0.26%. The index yield rose 6bp to 4.81%. Life insurance, metals & mining, and gaming led sector performance, while media entertainment and technology lagged. A rated bonds tightened 2bp and BBB rated bonds tightened 5bp. Credit curves were broadly flat as both intermediate and longer-dated maturities tightened by 3bp.

European investment-grade spreads tightened by 3bp to +78bp OAS, generating total returns of -0.19% and excess returns of 0.27%. Life insurance, transportation, and integrated sectors outperformed. Technology, banking, and automotive underperformed.

High yield spreads tightened by 3bp to +266bp, with total returns of 0.57%. The high yield index yield declined 4bp to 6.53%.

GDP growth accelerated unexpectedly in Q3 2025, expanding at a 4.3% pace pa versus 3.8% in the prior period. Robust consumer spending drove the expansion, while export growth rebounded. Consumer confidence, as measured by the University of Michigan, recovered slightly after four months of decline, though the index of current conditions fell to a new all-time low at 50.7. Labor market data showed a sharp decline in jobs in October followed by a modest rebound, with more than 40,000 jobs lost over two months. Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 3.5% in November, its weakest pace since mid-2021. Inflation fell sharply to 2.7%, below expectations, with core inflation at 2.6%. Looking ahead, the ISM Manufacturing PMI dropped to 48.2, and durable goods orders (ex-transportation) rose just 0.2%. The Federal Reserve (Fed) responded to easing inflation and a softer labor market with a 25bp rate cut, bringing the Fed funds range to 3.50% to 3.75%. This marks the third cut since policy easing resumed in September 2024.

Outlook

We expect US growth to remain steady but below trend in 2026. Labor market softening should weigh on consumer spending, though real wage growth is likely to stay positive in the near term. Tariffs will likely depress imports more than exports, providing a modest positive impulse to growth. Forward indicators do not point to a manufacturing rebound, but AI-related infrastructure spending is expected to be a significant tailwind for the US and global economy. Inflation risks persist but are not our base case; we expect inflation to remain volatile yet broadly stable, ending 2026 just below 3%. We believe, the Fed is likely to continue cutting rates, reaching a terminal level near 3.25% within 12 months. We anticipate 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields to hover near current levels – around 4.10% and 4.80%, respectively – though volatility may rise as midterm elections approach.

Technicals

December investment-grade issuance totaled $28.1bn, consistent with typical year-end slowdown. For 2025, corporate issuance rose 3.9% y/y. January is expected to be active, with projections of $150–$170bn, led by banks post-fourth quarter earnings. High-yield issuance was stronger at $30.5bn. Treasury yields rose and the curve steepened.

Fundamentals

Consensus expects earnings growth of 15% in 2026. Investment-grade leverage remains stable despite higher debt issuance, supported by revenue growth and margin improvement. Liquidity is ample, underpinned by strong free cash flow and issuance. Rising M&A and AI-related CAPEX may pressure credit metrics modestly, though equity-heavy deal structures limit incremental debt.

Valuations

Investment-grade spreads tightened 2bp for the year, trading in a narrow range since July. Year-to-date wides were +119bp in April and tights were +72bp in September. With yields near 5%, investment-grade continues to offer attractive long-term entry points, supporting positive flows. Valuations remain tight; we expect spreads to widen modestly early in the year as issuance picks up, though strong demand could drive spreads tighter if supply underwhelms.

Risks

  • Weaker employment data impacting the consumer
  • Geopolitical tensions
  • Tariff-related impacts on growth and inflation
  • Rising debt-funded M&A and shareholder distribution
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