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Investment grade credit

Investment grade credit

February 2026 review and outlook

Market environment

The Bloomberg US Corporate Bond Index saw spreads widen by 11bp to an option adjusted spread (OAS) level of 84bp. The index’s total returns of 1.29% and excess returns of -0.77%. The index’s yield declined by 11bp to 4.73%, driven by lower Treasury yields.

Construction machinery, automotives, and independent energy led performance, while life insurance, property and casualty insurance, and media and entertainment lagged. ‘A’-rated bonds widened 11bp and ‘BBB’-rated bonds widened by 13bp. Credit curves steepened, with intermediate maturities widening 9bp and longer-dated maturities widening 14bp.

European investment-grade spreads widened by 9bp to 83bp, generating total returns of 0.55% and excess returns of -0.33%. Other financials, REITs, and natural gas outperformed, while life insurance, technology, and consumer cyclical services underperformed.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index saw credit spreads widen by 26bp to +291bp, with total returns of 0.19%. The index rose by 13bp to 6.71%. Higher-quality BBs outperformed (+53bp) relative to CCCs (-56bp). There were no fallen angels during the period. Defaults totaled $3.2bn while rising stars amounted to $850m.

In the US, the ISM manufacturing PMI registered a strong rebound in January, rising to 52.6, its highest level in more than three years, above economists’ expectations. The services PMI was unchanged at 53.8. Employment data also rebounded in February, with reported monthly non-farm payrolls increasing by 130,000 in January, well above expectations, driven largely by gains in the healthcare sector. Headline CPI declined to 2.4%, while core CPI fell to 2.5%, its lowest level in nearly five years. Consumer confidence remained relatively resilient, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index edging higher to 56.6. However, following strong economic growth in Q3 2025, initial estimates for Q4 GDP growth came in below expectations at just 1.4% SAAR.

Outlook

Despite the US economy demonstrating resilience in recent months, we expect activity to remain below trend both this year and in 2027. Inflation is likely to remain volatile, influenced by ongoing tariff uncertainty, as well as higher energy prices given geopolitical conflict in the Middle East.

Technicals

February US investment-grade corporate issuance totaled $178.6bn, marking the second-largest February on record, behind only 2024. Long-end supply increased significantly, accounting for 25% of total issuance versus a 2025 average of 13%. There were seven M&A-related deals, led by ‘AA’-rated Abbott Labs, which issued $20bn. Treasury yields declined sharply and the curve steepened: the 5-year fell 29bp to 3.50%, the 10-year declined 30bp to 4.94%, and the 30-year fell 17bp to 4.61%.

Fundamentals

Q4 earnings growth was strong, rising 13.5% year-over-year, although negative earnings surprises increased to 21.6% of the S&P 500, up from 19.1% in the prior year. In our view, investment grade leverage remains stable despite elevated issuance, supported by solid revenue growth and margin improvement. M&A-related funding activity is increasing, which could lead to a modest uptick in leverage over the course of the year. Liquidity remains ample, underpinned by strong free cash flow generation and continued access to new issue markets. Capital expenditures rose 38.6% last quarter, driven primarily by AI-related technology investments.

Valuations

We believe investor demand for investment grade credit should remain strong, as the asset class continues to offer a compelling yield pickup over cash. Despite relatively tight spreads, in our view valuations remain attractive relative to underlying fundamental risks. We expect spreads to widen modestly early in the year as issuance accelerates, though strong near-term demand could drive spreads tighter if supply undershoots expectations.

Risks

  • Weaker employment data impacting consumers
  • Elevated geopolitical tensions
  • Tariff-related headwinds to growth and inflation
  • Increased debt-funded M&A activity and shareholder distributions
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