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    Global Macro Research - US Election 2024: An early look

    Global Macro Research - US Election 2024: An early look

    May 02, 2024 Global macro, Geopolitics, Economics

    We expect a close-run presidential election. Our current base case is close to a 50:50 probability that either candidate will prevail with another split Congress.

    Notably both candidates have opposing views over the “fiscal cliff” they will face after the election, which we expect to become a pivotal domestic issue.

    • We expect very close elections, and our current call is for the House and Senate to flip to opposite parties (something that has never happened in a single election before). Our base case of a divided, polarized government will likely translate into more gridlock, with neither party fully able to implement its agenda.
    • The return of President Biden to the White House would offer more policy predictability. At the same time, we also expect a second President Trump administration would be less chaotic in carrying out his agenda this time around, given a higher degree of familiarity with how Washington works and a more aligned Republican Party and Cabinet.

    • Addressing the fiscal cliff (as some provisions from the 2017 Tax Cut and Jobs Act expire) will be a pivotal domestic issue. The two sides have differing views on the fate of these cuts, and the balance of power in Washington after the upcoming elections will have meaningful implications for the US outlook.
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