image image

    Systematic Insights:

    maybe we underestimated fallen angel downgrades

    Systematic Insights:

    maybe we underestimated fallen angel downgrades

    July 01, 2025 Fixed income

    In January, we forecasted ~$50bn of fallen angel downgrades (i.e., from investment grade to high yield) in 2025. With half the year still to go, we have already hit that figure.

    We told you downgrades were coming

    Up to May, we saw ~$21bn of downgrades, already around a threefold increase over 2024’s record low. This month, Warnermedia1 joined them after unveiling plans to split into two businesses, sparking downgrades from BBB to BB status from all three agencies across $31.5bn of bonds.

    Following the issuer’s announcement of a buyback, this will send $16.6bn of bonds to US high yield and fallen angels indices. It is easily the largest fallen angel since $37bn of Ford1 bonds were downgraded in 2020. It dwarfs all other post-pandemic downgrades (Figure 1).

    Figure 1: Warnermedia is the largest fallen angel since the pandemic by far1

    Picture1 watermedia.png

    There could be more fallen angels in the pipeline

    There may be ample room for downgrades to far surpass our ~$50bn forecast.

    Within the BBB industrials market, $205bn of issuers (by par value outstanding) have at least two negative credit rating outlooks and ~$116bn trade at wider spreads than the weighted average BB industrial3.

    Further, interest coverage ratios are slipping among BBB- rated issuers relative to broader BBBs (Figure 2). This may be particularly significant because 80% of fallen angels were historically downgraded from  BBB-3.

    Figure 2: Sliding interest coverage ratios may mean more downgrades2

    Picture2 slidig interest.svg

    Remember – Downgrades may actually be good news

    In a world where we expect high yield bond defaults to remain contained, fallen angel downgrades (particularly for large bonds) create predictable waves of forced selling across passive investment grade accounts, which can cause outsized underperformance around their downgrade dates. This can leave high yield and fallen angel investors well placed to buy the bonds at potential outsized discounts.

    In the current environment, we believe downgrade activity makes US fallen angels a particularly compelling fixed income opportunity.

    image
    Download whitepaper
    134 kb
    Back to top