Results

    banner

    Latest views

    China: potential growth – lower for longer

    China: potential growth – lower for longer

    14 February 2024

    We continue to have a bearish view for Chinese growth over the medium term relative to current market expectations.

    Asset returns post rate peaks

    Asset returns post rate peaks

    30 January 2024

    Markets are pricing in the end of the rate cycle, and if they are correct then asset prices have historically performed well in the period between the last hike and the first cut.

    The case for a higher neutral interest rate

    The case for a higher neutral interest rate

    6 November 2023

    In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.

    Archive

    Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?

    Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?

    12 October 2023

    Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.

    The rise of green protectionism

    The rise of green protectionism

    27 September 2023

    Green protectionism is reshaping the global economy and geopolitics.

    Asset allocation in focus

    Asset allocation in focus

    10 July 2023

    We discuss the influence of growth, inflation and real interest rates on asset allocation decisions.

    30 years in currency markets

    30 years in currency markets

    26 June 2023

    We discuss the evolution of currency markets and currency management over the last 30 years.

    A banquet of consequences

    A banquet of consequences

    15 June 2023

    The growing risks facing the global financial system.

      Back to top