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Investment grade credit

Investment grade credit

May 2026 review and outlook

Market environment

The Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Index spreads tightened by 6bp to 72bp option adjusted spread (OAS), with total returns of 0.76% and excess returns of 0.56%. The index’s yield declined 1bp to 5.13%. Leisure, wirelines, and technology segments led monthly performance, while sovereigns and construction machinery lagged. By credit rating, lower-quality credit outperformed, with ‘A’-rated bonds tightening 5bp and ‘BBB’-rated bonds tightening 9bp. Credit curves flattened, with intermediate spreads tightening 6bp and long-dated maturities tightening 8bp.

The Fed kept US interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, albeit multiple members favored removing the easing bias from forward guidance given inflation concerns.

Geopolitical risk remained elevated with the US and Iran negotiating to resolve the conflict, and the nations appeared closer to an agreement by the end of May. Global oil prices were volatile, with WTI crude ending the month at just under $90 per barrel.

Markets shifted from debating the timing of cuts to pricing a meaningful probability of hikes.

Headline CPI accelerated in April from 3.3% to 3.8% year-over-year, the highest since May 2024. Core CPI rose from 2.6% to 2.8%. Headline PCE inflation accelerated from 3.5% to 3.8% in April, while core PCE rose from 3.2% to 3.3%. Energy continued to be the main driver. CPI also saw a likely one-time acceleration in shelter inflation, reflecting calculation disruptions relating to the recent government shutdown.

Nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 in April, down from a revised gain of 185,000 jobs in March. The unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%. Weekly initial claims remained contained but rose in May. Initial jobless claims rose from 190,000 to 215,000 and continuing claims rose modestly from 1.758m to 1.786m.

The second estimate of Q1 2026 GDP growth was revised down to 2% from 1.6% SAAR and below the consensus forecast of 2%. The downward shift primarily reflected steeper pullbacks in private nonfarm inventory investment and a cooling in consumer spending, particularly on services.

Outlook

We continue to maintain a benign outlook for the US economy, supported by a combination of expansionary fiscal policy, less restrictive monetary policy, and the ongoing artificial intelligence investment cycle. However, the economy appears increasingly bifurcated between higher-income households and the rest.

We believe monetary policy may not be especially effective in addressing stagflationary consequences stemming from a sustained oil price shock. Much will depend on the trajectory of US growth amid rising input costs. For example, if economic activity remains robust, supported by continued investment in AI, the Fed may prefer to return to a tightening bias, confident that economic momentum can withstand it. Conversely, while near-term inflationary pressures are likely to delay any potential rate cuts, the secondary impact on growth is becoming more pronounced, raising the possibility of further labor market weakness and potentially necessitating additional policy action.

Technicals

In May, US investment grade corporate issuance totaled $162.7bn; year-to-date supply is running 25% ahead of the pace set in 2025, led by hyperscalers and bank/insurance issuers. As rates have risen, issuers have favored shorter-duration funding, with 55% of May’s supply coming in the one-to-5-year maturity range. US investment grade inflows accelerated to $41.7bn in May, compared with $9.8bn in April. Treasury yields moved higher and the curve bear-flattened, with the 5-year rising 13bp to 4.14%, the 10-year increasing 7bp to 4.44%, and the 30-year unchanged at 4.97%.

Fundamentals

Investment grade leverage remains stable despite elevated issuance, supported by continued strong earnings. In the first quarter, 83.5% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. Merger and acquisition activity remains elevated and could contribute to a modest increase in leverage later in the year. Liquidity conditions also remain strong, supported by robust free cashflow generation and continued access to the primary market. Capital expenditure (capex) rose 23% last quarter, led by technology (55%) and communications (41%). Cash returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks has slowed, suggesting that capex growth is not being fully funded through new debt issuance.

Valuations

Investment grade spreads have been hovering near multi-year tights in the low 70s. In the recent recovery, higher-beta sectors have outperformed. We expect demand for investment grade credit to remain strong, as the asset class continues to offer a compelling yield advantage over cash. If spreads tighten further from current levels, we may reduce credit risk exposure.

Risks

  • Weaker employment data weighing on consumer spending
  • Elevated geopolitical tensions
  • Higher oil prices pressuring growth and inflation
  • Increased debt-funded M&A activity and shareholder distributions
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