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Investment grade credit

Investment grade credit

March 2026 review and outlook

Market environment

US corporate spreads widened by 5bp to 89bp option adjusted spread (OAS), with total returns of -1.98% and excess returns of -0.08%. The index yield rose 41bp to 5.14%, marking the largest monthly increase since October 2024. Chemicals, life insurance, and property and casualty insurance led performance, while leisure, automotive, and home construction lagged. ‘A’-rated bonds widened 4bp and ‘BBB’-rated bonds widened 6bp. Credit curves steepened, with intermediate maturities widening 6bp while longer-dated maturities were flat. The front end of the curve underperformed in part as investors sold it to fund purchases of longer-dated new issues.

European investment grade spreads widened 14bp to 97bp, generating total returns of -2.27% and excess returns of -0.49%. Integrated energy, wirelines, and consumer cyclical services outperformed, while REITs, other financials, and automotive underperformed.

High yield spreads widened 26bp to 317bp, with total returns of -1.18%. The high yield index yield rose 69bp to 7.40%. Fallen angels totaled $15.4bn during the month. Defaults reached $3.2bn, while rising stars amounted to $9.1bn.

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) voted 11-1 to keep US interest rates unchanged at 3.5% to 3.75%, citing increased uncertainty stemming from the Middle East. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Powell highlighted the resilience of the US economy but warned that the conflict involving Iran could push inflation higher and weigh on consumer spending and employment. Fed officials raised their US GDP growth forecast for 2026 to 2.4%, up from 2.3%. The dot plot showed the median federal funds rate projection at 3.4% by the end of 2026, unchanged from December. Meanwhile, the ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged down in February to 52.4 from January’s 52.6 yet still marked a second consecutive month of expansion. The ISM Services PMI rose sharply to 56.1 in February from 53.8 in January, exceeding expectations of 53.5. The annual CPI inflation rate held steady at 2.4% in February, as expected, with core CPI inflation also unchanged at 2.5%. Annualized GDP growth in Q4 was revised lower to 0.7% from an initial estimate of 1.4%, reflecting softer-than-expected consumer and government spending and down from the 4.4% pace recorded in the prior quarter. Labor market data weakened materially, with nonfarm payrolls showing a loss of 92,000 jobs in February, a sharp deterioration from January’s downwardly revised gain of 126,000 and well below expectations for a 59,000 increase. Consumer confidence remained relatively resilient but declined over the month, with the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index falling to 53.3 from 56.6 in January and below the preliminary estimate.

Outlook

The ongoing conflict in the Middle East adds uncertainty to economic growth and inflation. While near-term inflationary pressures are likely to delay potential Fed rate cuts, the secondary impact on economic growth is becoming more evident, raising the risk of further labor market deterioration and potentially necessitating policy support later in 2026.

Technicals

March US investment grade corporate issuance totaled $220bn, the fourth-largest monthly total on record. With over $100bn in maturities during the month, roughly half of issuance was dedicated to refinancing activity. There were seven M&A-related deals totaling $55bn, marking the largest monthly volume since February 2024. Non-financial issuers accounted for 80% of total supply, while April issuance is expected to shift toward financials as US banks begin reporting earnings on April 14. Year-to-date issuance is up 18% year over year, driven by increased AI hyperscaler issuance and an uptick in M&A-related financing. US investment grade inflows remained positive but slowed to $21bn, the lowest monthly inflow since April 2025. Treasury yields rose sharply, reversing February’s rally, as the curve flattened: the 5-year yield increased 44bp to 3.94%, the 10-year rose 38bp to 4.32%, and the 30-year climbed 30bp to 4.91%.

Fundamentals

Investment grade leverage remains stable despite elevated issuance, supported by 11.8% year-over-year EBITDA growth in the most recent quarter. M&A activity has remained elevated and could lead to a modest uptick in leverage later in the year. Liquidity conditions remain strong, underpinned by robust free cashflow generation and continued access to the new issue market. Capital expenditures rose 23% last quarter, driven primarily by AI-related technology investments.

Valuations

Investment grade spreads widened over the month, reaching a peak of 91 OAS before ending March at 89. IG outperformed other risk assets, with only modest spread widening despite the sell-off in global equities. New issues performed well, tightening an average of 7bp versus secondary market bonds, which widened over the month. We believe demand for investment-grade credit will remain strong as the asset class continues to offer a compelling yield advantage over cash. Despite relatively tight spreads, valuations remain attractive relative to underlying fundamental risks.

Risks

  • Weaker employment data impacting consumers
  • Elevated geopolitical tensions
  • Tariff-related headwinds to growth and inflation
  • Increased debt-funded M&A activity and shareholder distributions
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