image image

Investment grade credit

Investment grade credit

June 2026 review and outlook

Market environment

The Bloomberg US Investment Grade Corporate Index spreads widened 2bp to +74bp option-adjusted spread (OAS), with total returns of 0.19% and excess returns of -0.18% during June. The index yield increased by 7bp to 5.20%.

From a sector perspective, transportation services, airlines and financial companies led monthly performance, while cable satellite, wirelines and media entertainment lagged. 'A'-rated bonds widened 1bp and 'BBB'-rated bonds widened 3bp, as lower-quality credit underperformed. Credit curves steepened, with intermediate spreads unchanged while long-dated maturities underperformed, widening 7bp.

The Bloomberg Euro Investment Grade Corporate Bond Index spreads widened by 1bp to +80bp OAS, generating total returns of 0.44% and excess returns of 0.06%. REITs, life insurance and other financials outperformed, while automotive, integrated energy and retailers underperformed.

The Bloomberg US Corporate High Yield Index’s spreads widened 13bp to +270bp OAS, with total returns of 0.27%. The high yield index yield increased 20bp to 7.16%. Building materials and packaging led sector performance, while property and casualty insurance and transportation services underperformed. There were no fallen angels or defaults during the month, while rising stars totaled $11.2bn.

In June, the Federal Reserve unanimously voted to leave the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. The Committee’s “dot plot” signaled a shift, with participants split on projecting rate hikes or no change in rates this year. New Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Kevin Warsh scaled back the central bank’s forward guidance, but reiterated the central bank’s commitment to price stability. PCE inflation rose to 4.1% in May, in line with expectations, while core PCE inflation increased to 3.4%, modestly above expectations. CPI inflation rose to 4.2% in May from 3.8% in April. Q1 GDP growth was confirmed at 2.1%, up from the prior estimate of 1.6% and above the 0.5% pace recorded in the final quarter of 2025. Labor market data showed the US economy added 172,000 jobs in May, well above expectations of 85,000, though modestly lower than April’s upwardly revised 179,000.

Outlook

Our base case remains that GDP growth will be close to 2% this year and in 2027, supported by the ongoing expansion of digital and AI infrastructure investment. However renewed escalation in geopolitical tensions has increased risks to both growth and inflation. Although the outlook remains uncertain, we expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged while policymakers assess the impact of higher energy prices on employment and inflation. A more prolonged energy shock would, however, raise near-term inflation risks while increasing the likelihood of slower economic growth.

Technicals

June US investment grade corporate issuance totaled $191bn, a record for the month and well ahead of expectations, driven by $25bn offerings from both Nvidia and SpaceX1. Year-to-date supply is running 25% ahead of the pace seen in 2025, led by hyperscalers and bank and insurance issuers. The average coupon on new issues was 5.25%, compared with 3.50% for the average maturing bond. The Treasury curve flattened during the month, with the 5-year yield rising 9bp to 4.23%, the 10-year increasing 3bp to 4.47%, and the 30-year declining 2bp to 4.95%.

Fundamentals

Investment grade leverage remains stable despite elevated issuance, supported by continued earnings strength. In the first quarter, 83.5% of S&P 500 companies exceeded earnings expectations, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. M&A activity remains elevated and could contribute to a modest increase in leverage later this year. Liquidity conditions also remain favorable, supported by robust free cashflow generation and continued access to the primary market. Capital expenditures increased 23% last quarter, led by technology (+55%) and communications (+41%). Cash returned to shareholders through dividends and buybacks has moderated, suggesting capex growth is not being fully funded through additional debt issuance.

Valuations

Investment grade spreads continue to hover near multi-year lows and have traded within a relatively narrow range. Should spreads tighten further from current levels, we may look to reduce overall credit risk exposure.

Risks

  • Weaker employment data weighing on consumer spending
  • Elevated geopolitical tensions
  • Higher oil prices pressuring growth and inflation
  • Increased debt-funded M&A activity and shareholder distribution
Back to top