Global Perspectives

Le Déluge: On the brink of a French fiscal crisis? Fixed income

Le Déluge: On the brink of a French fiscal crisis?

We consider the investment implications of France heading for a fiscal crisis, and how it is on the verge of a dramatic political shift.

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02 Oct 2026 5-7 min read

Market viewpoints

November 2026

  • AI is starting to create a credit market within a credit market

    The financing requirements associated with the AI build-out are enormous, and that is beginning to produce very different market dynamics for hyperscalers relative to the rest of investment grade credit. New issuance is putting pressure on hyperscaler spreads, while investors appear willing to pay for diversification elsewhere in the market. For now, we view this more as a sector-specific technical challenge than a broader deterioration in credit fundamentals. But with the scale of capital required unprecedented in both size and duration, we believe it is a dynamic that investors cannot afford to ignore.

    Adam Whiteley
    Adam Whiteley Head of Global Credit
  • In our view, European credit is beginning to look attractive again

    Recent volatility has pushed European credit spreads to more attractive levels, while the underlying technical picture remains supportive. With corporate fundamentals still relatively strong, we think current valuations offer potential opportunities, although a likely heavy new-issuance calendar means selection should remain important.

    Bonnie Abdul-Aziz
    Bonnie Abdul-Aziz Head of European Credit
  • We believe the fiscal tables are turning in favour of emerging markets

    One of the most striking features of today's fixed income landscape is the contrast between emerging and developed markets. Many emerging-market sovereigns enter this period with stronger fiscal and external positions, while corporate leverage is also lower than in developed markets. At the same time, EM corporates benefit from shorter duration and a very different supply picture, with net supply remaining negative. These structural improvements help explain why the asset class has remained resilient despite considerable global volatility.

    Rodica Glavan
    Rodica Glavan Head of EM Corporate Fixed Income

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