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Municipal bonds

Municipal bonds

March 2026 review and outlook

Market review

The Bloomberg AAA Tax-Exempt Municipal Bond Index performance was negative across the curve. The curve also flattened, while the US Treasury curve steepened.

The best performing municipal states were Puerto Rico, Vermont and Hawaii. The weakest performers were Guam, New Hampshire and Alabama. The highest outperforming revenue sectors were Tobacco, Resource Recovery and Transportation, while the weakest performers were Industrial Development Revenue/Pollution Control Revenue, Leasing and Education. By quality, AA-rated and A-rated municipals were the strongest performers, followed by BBB and AAA-rated municipals, respectively.

The Bloomberg US Aggregate-eligible Taxable Municipal Index generated a total return of 0.34% in March. Spreads for the taxable municipal index were wider by 2bp and spreads for the credit long index widened by 4bp.

Monthly municipal issuance was $50bn, above the average for the month over the past five years. Taxable municipal issuance represented 5% of March’s supply.

Muni fund flows were positive for March, with inflows averaging $925m per week. ETF fund flows were positive for March with inflows averaging $995m per week.

Outlook

We expect bond market volatility amid the ongoing Iran conflict to continue as the market digests competing themes of a slowing economy and higher energy prices. We remain constructive on the municipal market following the March rate sell-off and passing of the typical tax filing season weakness.

We expect new issue supply will remain steady but manageable, supported by continued solid demand from retail investors via flows into mutual funds and ETFs. For top tax rate investors, taxable equivalent Muni yields look compelling in our view with The Bloomberg Municipal Index’s tax-equivalent yield ending March at 6.37%. Muni/Treasury ratios increased, improving relative value.

Municipal credit conditions remain strong in our view, but the Iran conflict has become a meaningful new risk factor. The disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has pushed energy prices higher, raising operating costs for transit systems and utilities, and pressuring household budgets – effects that can soften broad-based tax collections. Cybersecurity risk has also increased, with US public finance issuers potentially facing the prospect of retaliatory attacks tied to the conflict. States with oil-linked revenues (e.g. Texas, Louisiana, New Mexico) may experience temporary fiscal gains, but we believe they may only turn into a long-term credit benefit if they are channeled into reserves rather than recurring spending.

The Iran conflict is contributing to negative sentiment that could widen spreads in sectors such as Airports, Toll Roads, Seaports, and Utilities. Any dislocation may create opportunities to purchase high quality credits at potentially more attractive levels. In evaluating these opportunities, we continue to prioritize issuers with strong balance sheets, robust liquidity, and meaningful operating flexibility.

We believe in positioning municipal bond strategies to deliver potentially compelling tax-exempt income while maintaining disciplined credit diversification and a focus on durable revenue-backed structures including high-quality essential-service bonds like water and sewer and public power, which can offer resilient cashflows and attractive relative value. More yield-oriented sectors such as prepay gas and healthcare are also a focus and additive to the overall yield profile of the portfolio. We also believe in maintaining healthy portfolio liquidity to ensure flexibility to reinvest, meet potential redemptions, and take advantage of potential value opportunities.

Our duration stance is neutral to modestly long versus our benchmarks, given the prospect of heightened rate volatility. We believe intermediate maturities (10 to 20 years) look attractive given steepness of curves.

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