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An unseeable currency equilibrium

Navigating fixed income

February 02, 2026 Fixed income, Video

Francesca Fornasari, Head of Currency

Key takeaways:

  • The US dollar faces structural headwinds, but the erosion of its reserve‑currency status remains gradual.
  • Cyclical forces, notably growth and monetary‑policy differentials, are likely to be the primary drivers of performance in 2026.
  • Overall, the dollar sits in an unstable equilibrium; the trend should be lower, but strong US data or geopolitical flare‑ups could still offer reprieve.
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