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US PensionWatch

US PensionWatch

Key issues for pension funds in Q2 2026

An overview of news, market movements and insights focused on US pension schemes.

Key macro views

A new regime at the Fed

The Fed entered a new era under Kevin Warsh, removing forward guidance, reviewing key policy frameworks and adopting a more hawkish stance that preserves flexibility on future rate decisions.

Pension

A strong quarter for funded status

Tighter credit spreads more than countered an increase in rates, causing discount rates to decline, but a strong return for growth assets helped both our pension indices outperform their liabilities.

Credit markets

Credit update

As investors search for value beyond increasingly expensive developed markets, emerging market corporates stand out as a potential option for diversification. The case for emerging market corporates rests on three pillars: stronger balance sheets than many developed market peers; favorable supply-demand dynamics; and increasing participation in AI-driven global supply chains spanning technology, energy and critical minerals.

Investment outlook

Investment outlook

Geopolitical tensions have reinforced the importance of resilience in a world increasingly exposed to energy bottlenecks and supply-chain disruption, while AI-driven investment is creating a powerful new credit cycle that offers potentially attractive opportunities alongside elevated issuance risk.

Key risks

Key risks

While our base case remains constructive, policy uncertainty, weaker-than-expected growth and geopolitical shocks remain the key risks that could challenge credit markets and broader risk assets.

Education

Educational update

Digital assets are evolving from a niche innovation into a practical institutional tool, enabling faster settlement, greater programmability and more efficient capital deployment across investment portfolios.

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Read the full US PensionWatch for Q2 2026.

Read the full US PensionWatch for Q2 2026.

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