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US PensionWatch

US PensionWatch

Key issues for pension funds in Q3 2026

An overview of news, market movements and insights focused on US pension schemes.

Key macro views

The tightening cycle has restarted

The Federal Reserve delivered its first rate hike since 2023, raising rates by 25bp and signaling a greater focus on inflation. Markets are pricing a steeper path of future tightening than the Fed's own projections, contributing to a sharp rise in Treasury yields across maturities.

Pension

Pension discount curves may be affected by AI issuance

The growing weight of hyperscalers within AA-rated corporate bond markets is beginning to influence liability discount rates. Although the impact remains modest today, pension plans may wish to monitor how increasing issuance and issuer concentration could affect future liability valuations.

Credit markets

AI issuance is reshaping credit markets

AI-related investment-grade issuance has soared so far this year, with significantly more expected ahead. While the scale of supply is creating attractive opportunities for active investors, it is also driving long-term changes in index composition.

Investment outlook

Investment outlook

We remain broadly constructive on credit markets. Strong economic growth, robust corporate earnings and attractive all-in yields continue to support demand. However, elevated issuance and geopolitical uncertainty reinforce the importance of active security selection.

Key risks

Key risks

The principal risks remain a sharper-than-expected slowdown in growth, policy uncertainty stemming from the Fed's evolving framework and an increasingly unpredictable geopolitical backdrop.

Education

Educational update

Geopolitical competition is increasingly centered on strategic bottlenecks and chokepoints, from energy infrastructure and trade routes to semiconductors and critical minerals. Understanding these vulnerabilities may become increasingly important for assessing future inflation, growth and market risks.

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Read the full US PensionWatch for Q3 2026.

Read the full US PensionWatch for Q3 2026.

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