Global macro research hub
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Navigating the US data shutdown
21 October 2025
The US federal government shutdown has delayed several key economic data releases, forcing markets to pay closer attention to alternative data sources and complicating the Fed’s decision-making process.
Le Déluge: The French pensions problem
17 October 2025
We explore the structural challenges facing the French government.
Le Déluge: The centre cannot hold
10 October 2025
Another month, another failed French government. President Macron’s centrist experiment appears to be reaching an end.
Previous research
US exceptionalism: at a crossroads - video
26 September 2025
US exceptionalism has underpinned a long period of asset outperformance, but we stand at a cross roads, and this long standing trend may be drawing to a close.
Le déluge: France remains on a downward path
29 August 2025
French Prime Minister François Bayrou has called a confidence vote for 8 September 2025.
Fiscal fault lines: A global review of sovereign fiscal health
27 August 2025
We provide a comprehensive assessment of fiscal sustainability across developed and emerging markets.
Global macro research: Global trade in chains - tariff revenues
13 August 2025
U.S. tariff hikes are generating record revenues—now $29 billion monthly—and are projected to offset part of the fiscal burden from new spending, though not enough to reverse the country’s unsustainable debt trajectory.
Dollar dominance: holding on in a fragmenting world
10 July 2025
The US dollar remains the strongest candidate for global reserve currency status, but its dominance is no longer absolute.
