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Gilt market risks

Generating returns in an environment of low credit spreads and macro volatility

16 March 2026 Video, Global macro

In this session, Robert Gall, Head of Market Strategy examines how gilt pricing is shaped by long‑end spreads, market structure and shifts in the investor base, and how these dynamics are influencing UK issuance strategy and the cost of government borrowing, with political risk now a key domestic factor.

Key takeaways

  • We consider how gilt pricing works in practice, focusing on long‑end spreads, funding frictions, and differences across gilts by maturity, coupon and convexity.
  • Considering who owns and buys gilts, tracing shifts in the investor base over time, reveals a significant shift in the market.
  • Changes in market structure and demand feed through into the UK’s issuance strategy and the evolving cost of issuing government debt – with political risk emerging as the most significant domestic factor to consider.
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