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Le déluge - France remains on a downward path
29 August 2025
The forthcoming confidence vote in the French parliament looks set to topple the government. We consider the likely outcomes.
Fiscal fault lines: A global review of sovereign fiscal health
27 August 2025
We provide a comprehensive assessment of fiscal sustainability across developed and emerging markets.
Global macro research: Global trade in chains - tariff revenues
13 August 2025
U.S. tariff hikes are generating record revenues—now $29 billion monthly—and are projected to offset part of the fiscal burden from new spending, though not enough to reverse the country’s unsustainable debt trajectory.
Previous research
Dollar dominance: holding on in a fragmenting world
10 July 2025
The US dollar remains the strongest candidate for global reserve currency status, but its dominance is no longer absolute.
State of the world
25 June 2025
Markets have started to price in UK policy easing in 2024, but we believe those looking for aggressive cuts may be disappointed.
US exceptionalism: at a crossroads
09 June 2025
US exceptionalism has underpinned a long period of asset outperformance, but we stand at a cross roads, and this long standing trend may be drawing to a close.
Trade Wars 2025
04 June 2025
Tariff uncertainty has created considerable market volatility, but impact on growth remains unclear. We take a look at what my lie ahead.
What a tripolar world means for Europe
04 June 2025
We ask Gideon Rachman, Chief Foreign Affairs Commentator at the Financial Times to give his thoughts on the global outlook
