Multi Asset chart of the week

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18 March 2026 Multi-asset

Week to 20 March 2026

If energy price shocks are persistent rather than transitory, inflation is expected to spike globally

Stephanie Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager, said: “The Insight Macro Research team expects inflation to increase from its base case if energy price shocks are persistent rather than transitory. The risk case assumes that higher energy prices persist for one year before normalising at a slower rate. In the risk case, inflation increases for each of the major economies relative to the base case, but to differing degrees, depending on the proportion of energy in the country’s import basket and the proportion of a country’s overall consumption basket made up of energy. In 2026, Europe and Japan are both expected to have a larger increase in CPI (0.9% and 0.8%, respectively), in the risk case, compared to the US (0.7%).”^†

Source: Insight Investment, National Institute of Economic and Social Research as at 13 March 2026.

Week to 13 March 2026

The market has significantly reduced expectations of rate cuts from global central banks

Shantanu Tandon, CFA, Portfolio Manager, said: “Crude oil and natural gas production and delivery remained disrupted this week, with tanker flows through the Strait of Hormuz severely constrained. Energy prices surged as markets reacted to uncertainty around the duration and severity of the supply interruptions. Short‑maturity developed‑market government bond yields moved markedly higher, reflecting concerns over inflationary pressures if energy prices remain elevated. Markets scaled back expectations for interest‑rate cuts, with pricing now implying fewer rate cuts in the UK and a rate increase in Europe by the end of 2026.”^†

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Source: Insight Investment, Bloomberg as at 10 March 2026.

Week to 06 March 2026

Prices of commodities such as oil and natural gas will likely remain volatile as the conflict in Iran continues

Stephanie Chan, CFA, Portfolio Manager, said: “Over the weekend, the US and Israel jointly launched strikes on Iran, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khameni and aiming to destroy Iran’s weapons and to bring about regime change in the country. Iran responded with strikes on US military bases and Israeli targets in countries across the Middle East, prompting fears that the entire region would be pulled into the conflict. The price of Brent crude oil has jumped by more than 10% and the price of European natural gas has jumped by more than 70%. Markets remain uncertain about the degree and duration of supply disruption of oil and natural gas, two main commodities exported from the region. The Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed as shipping insurance companies have cancelled their policies amidst threats of violence. The crude oil price has hit its highest level since 2022, and the European natural gas price has picked up sharply from recent historical lows.”^†

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Source: Insight Investment, Bloomberg as at 03 March 2026.

Important information

If energy price shocks are persistent rather than transitory, inflation is expected to spike globally

The market has significantly reduced expectations of rate cuts from global central banks

Prices of commodities such as oil and natural gas will likely remain volatile as the conflict in Iran continues

Most read

If energy price shocks are persistent rather than transitory, inflation is expected to spike globally

The market has significantly reduced expectations of rate cuts from global central banks

Prices of commodities such as oil and natural gas will likely remain volatile as the conflict in Iran continues

Most read

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