Global macro research hub
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Navigating the US data shutdown
October 21, 2025
The US federal government shutdown has delayed several key economic data releases, forcing markets to pay closer attention to alternative data sources and complicating the Fed’s decision-making process.
Le Déluge: The French pensions problem
October 17, 2025
We explore the structural challenges facing the French government.
Le Déluge: The center cannot hold
October 10, 2025
Another month, another failed French government. President Macron’s centrist experiment appears to be reaching an end.
Previous research
Le déluge: France remains on a downward path
August 29, 2025
The forthcoming confidence vote in the French parliament looks set to topple the government. We consider the likely outcomes.
Fiscal fault lines: A global review of sovereign fiscal health
August 27, 2025
We provide a comprehensive assessment of fiscal sustainability across developed and emerging markets.
Global macro research: Global trade in chains - tariff revenues
August 14, 2025
U.S. tariff hikes are generating record revenues—now $29 billion monthly—and are projected to offset part of the fiscal burden from new spending, though not enough to reverse the country’s unsustainable debt trajectory.
Dollar dominance: holding on in a fragmenting world
July 10, 2025
The US dollar remains the strongest candidate for global reserve currency status, but its dominance is no longer absolute.
Global Macro Research: State of the world
June 25, 2025
Markets have started to price in UK policy easing in 2024, but we believe those looking for aggressive cuts may be disappointed.
