Global macro research hub
Latest views
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
November 06, 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.
Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?
October 13, 2023
Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.
The rise of green protectionism
September 27, 2023
Green protectionism is reshaping the global economy and geopolitics.
Previous research
Asset allocation in focus
July 10, 2023
We discuss the influence of growth, inflation and real interest rates on asset allocation decisions.
30 years in currency markets
June 30, 2023
We discuss the evolution of currency markets and currency management over the last 30 years.
Different paths to different peaks
May 23, 2023
We believe European central banks can keep hiking in the months ahead despite a Fed pause.
Why central banks may struggle to solve the inflation puzzle
May 12, 2023
Easing inflationary pressures are dominating headlines, but early rate cuts may jeopardise the medium-term outlook.
