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    The case for a higher neutral interest rate

    The case for a higher neutral interest rate

    November 06, 2023

    In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.

    Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?

    Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?

    October 13, 2023

    Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.

    The rise of green protectionism

    The rise of green protectionism

    September 27, 2023

    Green protectionism is reshaping the global economy and geopolitics.

    Previous research

    Asset allocation in focus

    Asset allocation in focus

    July 10, 2023

    We discuss the influence of growth, inflation and real interest rates on asset allocation decisions.

    30 years in currency markets

    30 years in currency markets

    June 30, 2023

    We discuss the evolution of currency markets and currency management over the last 30 years.

    A banquet of consequences

    A banquet of consequences

    June 15, 2023

    The growing risks facing the global financial system.

    Different paths to different peaks

    Different paths to different peaks

    May 23, 2023

    We believe European central banks can keep hiking in the months ahead despite a Fed pause.

    Why central banks may struggle to solve the inflation puzzle

    Why central banks may struggle to solve the inflation puzzle

    May 12, 2023

    Easing inflationary pressures are dominating headlines, but early rate cuts may jeopardise the medium-term outlook.

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      Global macro research: Editorial committee

      Global macro research: Editorial committee

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