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Bottlenecks and chokepoints: the new global battleground

Bottlenecks and chokepoints: the new global battleground

September 30, 2026 Global macro, Geopolitics

“Globalisation is giving way to a world of strategic chokepoints, where trade routes, energy infrastructure, critical minerals, semiconductors, payment systems and capital markets are increasingly used as tools of geopolitical influence.”

 

Geopolitics has become a persistent feature of the investment landscape. What were once isolated geopolitical shocks are increasingly shaping global trade, financial markets and investment outcomes on a more permanent basis. In this paper, we examine how a growing rivalry between the US and China, combined with a more fragmented global order, is creating strategic bottlenecks across the global economy.

From critical shipping routes and energy infrastructure to rare earth metals, semiconductors, payment systems and capital markets, control of strategic chokepoints is becoming an increasingly important source of geopolitical influence. At the same time, advances in low-cost drone technology are reshaping military strategy, increasing the vulnerability of infrastructure and elevating the importance of previously overlooked locations and trade corridors.

The paper explores how supply-chain security is replacing efficiency as a policy priority, driving reshoring, regionalisation and investment in strategic industries. It examines the implications for inflation, economic growth, capital flows and corporate profitability, while highlighting potential flashpoints ranging from Greenland and the Arctic to Cuba, the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal and the Strait of Malacca.

For investors, understanding these structural shifts is becoming increasingly important. A world characterised by higher geopolitical risk, sanctions, supply disruptions, competing payment systems and strategic competition may lead to greater market volatility and periodic repricing of risk. We believe this environment is likely to create recurring opportunities for active investors able to identify dislocations and selectively deploy capital when risk is more attractively rewarded.

Read the paper to explore how geopolitical competition is reshaping global trade, security and capital markets, and why strategic bottlenecks and chokepoints may become one of the defining investment themes of the coming decade.

 

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