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Instant Insights:

CPI contained, but energy spike looms

Instant Insights: Cutting cycle recommences

March 12, 2026 Fixed income

Consumer prices rose 0.3% in February, keeping headline CPI at 2.4% year-over-year. Core prices rose 0.2%, keeping core CPI at 2.5%.

Core services categories continued to move in broadly the right direction. However, the Fed will likely remain cautious given war-related energy price concerns and the unwinding of government shutdown-related disruptions.

Energy CPI faces risks from developments in the Middle East

Core goods inflation was 0.1% in February. Used cars fell -0.4%, but tariff-sensitive goods categories rose 0.2%, driven by household appliances, apparel, jewelry and watches. Food inflation was 0.4%, driven by categories like fresh fruits and vegetables and beef.

Figure 1: Teadline CPI remains relatively benign

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Macrobond, Insight, March 2026

Energy prices rose 0.6% in February, driven by fuel oil and natural gas. The figures do not yet reflect the impact of the conflict in Iran. Since the start of March, the war-related spike in global crude oil prices has pushed average US regular gasoline prices from ~$3 per gallon to ~$3.60. Should this persist, it will likely push up energy-related components, which have a 6.4% weighting in the CPI (Figure 2).

Figure 2: The Iran war will likely result in a spike in energy inflation if higher oil prices persist

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration (EIA), Insight, March 2026

Shelter inflation continues to look contained

Shelter, the largest CPI component, remained at 3% year-over-year, with its “stubborn” rental component reaching 2.9% (its slowest level since August 2021). Excluding shelter, CPI was 2.1%, close to the Fed’s target. “Supercore” services (which exclude rents as well as food and energy), did nonetheless see some stickiness in transportation and medical care services (Figure 3).

Figure 3: Shelter inflation, the largest CPI category, remains contained for now

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Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Macrobond, Insight, March 2026

Conclusion – conflict in the Middle East poses headline inflation risk

We expect to see some upward pressure on headline CPI over the near term, from energy costs (relating to the Iran war) and peaking tariff-related inflation. Core CPI may also be impacted by the reversal of government shutdown-related distortions.

Our base case is that the Fed will be minded to “look through” the current spike in oil prices. The central bank has extensively studied energy shocks and concluded their impacts on core inflation and economic activity in the US have tended to be relatively contained.

Nonetheless, the geopolitical environment remains uncertain and we are watching developments closely for any signs that more persistent than expected (or further rising) oil prices could risk adverse second-round effects and / or unanchored long-term inflation expectations. For now, we continue to believe fixed income assets offer a compelling proposition for investors in an uncertain world.

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