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Instant Insights:

Soft CPI report as energy pressures ease

Instant Insights: Soft CPI report as energy pressures ease

July 14, 2026 Fixed income
  • Consumer prices fell by 0.4% in June, the largest one-month decrease since April 2020. This took headline CPI from 4.2% to 3.5% year-over-year.
  • The improvement was driven by retreating energy prices, while most other categories were also benign. Core prices were unchanged in June, taking core CPI from 2.9% to 2.6%.
  • Looking ahead, the lack of resolution to the US-Iran conflict indicates more volatility in energy inflation. However, while markets are pricing a rate hike as the Fed’s next move, we are currently unconvinced.

Energy prices slide, offering relief to consumers

Global oil prices retreated in June after the US and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding aimed at resolving the conflict. US energy prices fell 5.7% (the largest one-month decline since April 2020), and gasoline prices fell 9.7% in June.

Figure 1: Energy price pressures ease1

fig1_Energyprice.svg
Other segments were also benign. Food inflation was modest at 0.2% in June and core goods prices declined 0.1%, with notable falls in apparel and education and communication goods. Tariff-related goods prices fell 0.2% in June, indicating the worst may be behind us.

Core services categories were also relatively encouraging.

Shelter prices, the largest component of CPI, increased by 0.1% in June. Hotel prices fell 2.3% (the segment’s lowest monthly price change since May 2025) and airfares rose a modest 0.2% (lowest since November 2025), despite demand relating to the FIFA World Cup 2026. Motor vehicle insurance prices fell 2%, helping transportation services prices fall 0.3%.

Supercore CPI (which excludes rent as well as food and energy) eased from 3.7% to 3.2% year-over-year.

Figure 2: Shelter price inflation eases due to lower rental price pressures2

Sheltorpriceweb.svg

Continued US-Iran tensions may create further volatility in headline CPI

Global oil prices have risen by ~15% so far in July as US-Iran tensions re-ignited. Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is back to previous war-related lows (Figure 3). This indicates the global energy shock may not be over and disruptions to headline CPI may continue.

Figure 3: The decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz may be a sign of more energy-market volatility to come3

hormuz_web.svg

The market is currently pricing the Fed’s next move to be a rate hike. However, we believe the Fed will be minded to keep rates on hold for the foreseeable future.

We believe the more durable elements of core inflation are still moving in the right direction. Further, the Fed’s literature on energy shocks recommends “looking through” them as long as second-round effects remain contained and long-dated inflation expectations remain anchored4.

If the market is wrong about rate hikes, in our view it may be a compelling time for fixed income exposure.

 

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