Global macro research hub
Latest views
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
06 November 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.
Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?
13 October 2023
Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.
The rise of green protectionism
27 September 2023
Green protectionism is reshaping the global economy and geopolitics.
Previous research
Asset allocation in focus
10 July 2023
We discuss the influence of growth, inflation and real interest rates on asset allocation decisions.
30 years in currency markets
30 June 2023
We discuss the evolution of currency markets and currency management over the last 30 years.
Different paths to different peaks
23 May 2023
We believe European central banks can keep hiking in the months ahead despite a Fed pause.
Why central banks may struggle to solve the inflation puzzle
12 May 2023
Easing inflationary pressures are dominating headlines, but early rate cuts may jeopardise the medium-term outlook.
