Global macro research hub
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France: steps towards a second eurozone sovereign crisis
25 November 2025
France faces a precarious political and fiscal outlook, with implications for investors to consider.
Business investment, profits and the growth cycle
18 November 2025
We explore the evolving role of business investment – particularly the recent surge in AI-related capital expenditure – as a key driver of global growth.
Rare earths versus semiconductors – what are they playing at?
10 November 2025
President Trump is playing poker; President Xi is playing weiqi.
Previous research
Navigating the US data shutdown
21 October 2025
The US federal government shutdown has delayed several key economic data releases, forcing markets to pay closer attention to alternative data sources and complicating the Fed’s decision-making process.
US exceptionalism: at a crossroads - video
26 September 2025
US exceptionalism has underpinned a long period of asset outperformance, but we stand at a cross roads, and this long standing trend may be drawing to a close.
Fiscal fault lines: A global review of sovereign fiscal health
27 August 2025
We provide a comprehensive assessment of fiscal sustainability across developed and emerging markets.
Global macro research: Global trade in chains - tariff revenues
13 August 2025
U.S. tariff hikes are generating record revenues—now $29 billion monthly—and are projected to offset part of the fiscal burden from new spending, though not enough to reverse the country’s unsustainable debt trajectory.
Dollar dominance: holding on in a fragmenting world
10 July 2025
The US dollar remains the strongest candidate for global reserve currency status, but its dominance is no longer absolute.
