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    The case for a higher neutral interest rate

    The case for a higher neutral interest rate

    06 November 2023

    In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.

    Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?

    Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?

    13 October 2023

    Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.

    The rise of green protectionism

    The rise of green protectionism

    27 September 2023

    Green protectionism is reshaping the global economy and geopolitics.

    Previous research

    Asset allocation in focus

    Asset allocation in focus

    10 July 2023

    We discuss the influence of growth, inflation and real interest rates on asset allocation decisions.

    30 years in currency markets

    30 years in currency markets

    30 June 2023

    We discuss the evolution of currency markets and currency management over the last 30 years.

    A banquet of consequences

    A banquet of consequences

    16 June 2023

    The growing risks facing the global financial system.

    Different paths to different peaks

    Different paths to different peaks

    23 May 2023

    We believe European central banks can keep hiking in the months ahead despite a Fed pause.

    Why central banks may struggle to solve the inflation puzzle

    Why central banks may struggle to solve the inflation puzzle

    12 May 2023

    Easing inflationary pressures are dominating headlines, but early rate cuts may jeopardise the medium-term outlook.

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      Global macro research: Editorial committee

      Global macro research: Editorial committee

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