Category Fixed income
![The case for a higher neutral interest rate](/globalassets/images/redesign-images/perspectives/promo-block-404x265/15925---sm_11.jpg)
The case for a higher neutral interest rate
6 November 2023
In our view, the level of real interest rates at which central bank policy is neither stimulating or restricting growth has moved upwards.
![Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?](/contentassets/de7d9cade9db48568db0a9b79f0ec25b/15913-gmr-yield-curve-inversion_284x187.jpg)
Yield-curve inversion – an unreliable recession signal?
12 October 2023
Central banks have suppressed longer-dated bond yields, according to our analysis, undermining the value of an inverted yield curve as a recession signal.