Global macro research hub
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Business investment, profits and the growth cycle
November 18, 2025
We explore the evolving role of business investment – particularly the recent surge in AI-related capital expenditure – as a key driver of global growth.
Rare earths vs semiconductors – what are they playing at?
November 10, 2025
President Trump is playing poker; President Xi is playing weiqi.
Navigating the US data shutdown
October 21, 2025
The US federal government shutdown has delayed several key economic data releases, forcing markets to pay closer attention to alternative data sources and complicating the Fed’s decision-making process.
Previous research
Le Déluge: The French pensions problem
October 17, 2025
We explore the structural challenges facing the French government.
Le Déluge: The center cannot hold
October 10, 2025
Another month, another failed French government. President Macron’s centrist experiment appears to be reaching an end.
Le déluge: France remains on a downward path
August 29, 2025
The forthcoming confidence vote in the French parliament looks set to topple the government. We consider the likely outcomes.
Fiscal fault lines: A global review of sovereign fiscal health
August 27, 2025
We provide a comprehensive assessment of fiscal sustainability across developed and emerging markets.
Global macro research: Global trade in chains - tariff revenues
August 14, 2025
U.S. tariff hikes are generating record revenues—now $29 billion monthly—and are projected to offset part of the fiscal burden from new spending, though not enough to reverse the country’s unsustainable debt trajectory.
